Comparing Survival Extrapolation within All-Cause and Relative Survival Frameworks by Standard Parametric Models and Flexible Parametric Spline Models Using the Swedish Cancer Registry.

BACKGROUND: In health technology assessment, restricted mean survival time and life expectancy are commonly evaluated. Parametric models are typically used for extrapolation. Spline models using a relative survival framework have been shown to estimate life expectancy of cancer patients more reliably; however, more research is needed to assess spline models using an all-cause survival framework and standard parametric models using a relative survival framework. AIM: To assess survival extrapolation using standard parametric models and spline models within relative survival and all-cause survival frameworks. METHODS: From the Swedish Cancer Registry, we identified patients diagnosed with 5 types of cancer (colon, breast, melanoma, prostate, and chronic myeloid leukemia) between 1981 and 1990 with follow-up until 2020. Patients were categorized into 15 cancer cohorts by cancer and age group (18-59, 60-69, and 70-99 y). We right-censored the follow-up at 2, 3, 5, and 10 y and fitted the parametric models within an all-cause and a relative survival framework to extrapolate to 10 y and lifetime in comparison with the observed Kaplan-Meier survival estimates. All cohorts were modeled with 6 standard parametric models (exponential, Weibull, Gompertz, log-logistic, log-normal, and generalized gamma) and 3 spline models (on hazard, odds, and normal scales). RESULTS: For predicting 10-y survival, spline models generally performed better than standard parametric models. However, using an all-cause or a relative survival framework did not show any distinct difference. For lifetime survival, extrapolating from a relative survival framework agreed better with the observed survival, particularly using spline models. CONCLUSIONS: For extrapolation to 10 y, we recommend spline models. For extrapolation to lifetime, we suggest extrapolating in a relative survival framework, especially using spline models. HIGHLIGHTS: For survival extrapolation to 10 y, spline models generally performed better than standard parametric models did. However, using an all-cause or a relative survival framework showed no distinct difference under the same parametric model.Survival extrapolation to lifetime within a relative survival framework agreed well with the observed data, especially using spline models.Extrapolating parametric models within an all-cause survival framework may overestimate survival proportions at lifetime; models for the relative survival approach may underestimate instead.

Cost-effectiveness of Prostate Cancer Screening Using Magnetic Resonance Imaging or Standard Biopsy Based on the STHLM3-MRI Study.

Importance: The combination of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for prostate cancer detection has rarely been evaluated in a screening context. The STHLM3-MRI screening-by-invitation study (NCT03377881) has reported the benefits of using MRI with subsequent combined targeted and standard biopsies compared with using standard biopsies alone. Objective: To investigate the cost-effectiveness of prostate cancer screening using MRI with combined targeted and standard biopsies compared with standard biopsies alone among men aged 55 to 69 years in Sweden, based on evidence from the STHLM3-MRI study. Design, Setting, and Participants: This economic evaluation study was conducted from a lifetime health care perspective using a microsimulation model to evaluate no screening and screening strategies among adult men in Sweden. Men aged 55 to 69 years in Sweden were simulated for no screening and screening strategies. Input parameters were obtained from the STHLM3-MRI study and recent reviews. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed in May 2022. Interventions: No screening, quadrennial PSA screening using standard biopsies alone, and MRI-based screening using combined targeted and standard biopsies. Main Outcomes and Measures: The number of tests, incidence, deaths, costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated. Results: A total 603 men were randomized to the standard arm, 165 of these participants (27.4%) did not undergo standard biopsy; 929 men were randomized to the experimental arm, 111 (11.9%) of whom did undergo MRI or any biopsy. Compared with no screening, the screening strategies were associated with reduced lifetime prostate cancer-related deaths by 6% to 9%. Screening with MRI and the combined biopsies resulted in an ICER of US $53 736, which is classified as a moderate cost per QALY gained in Sweden. Relative to screening with standard biopsies alone, MRI-based screening reduced the number of both lifetime biopsies and overdiagnosis by approximately 50% and had a high probability of being cost-effective than the traditional PSA screening. Conclusions and Relevance: For prostate cancer screening, this economic evaluation study found that PSA testing followed by MRI with subsequent combined targeted and standard biopsies had a high probability to be more cost-effective compared with the traditional screening pathway using PSA and standard biopsy. MRI-based screening may be considered for early detection of prostate cancer in Sweden.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Prostate Cancer Screening in the UK: A Decision Model Analysis Based on the CAP Trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Most guidelines in the UK, Europe and North America do not recommend organised population-wide screening for prostate cancer. Prostate-specific antigen-based screening can reduce prostate cancer-specific mortality, but there are concerns about overdiagnosis, overtreatment and economic value. The aim was therefore to assess the cost effectiveness of eight potential screening strategies in the UK. METHODS: We used a cost-utility analysis with an individual-based simulation model. The model was calibrated to data from the 10-year follow-up of the Cluster Randomised Trial of PSA Testing for Prostate Cancer (CAP). Treatment effects were modelled using data from the Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment (ProtecT) trial. The participants were a hypothetical population of 10 million men in the UK followed from age 30 years to death. The strategies were: no screening; five age-based screening strategies; adaptive screening, where men with an initial prostate-specific antigen level of < 1.5 ng/mL are screened every 6 years and those above this level are screened every 4 years; and two polygenic risk-stratified screening strategies. We assumed the use of pre-biopsy multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging for men with prostate-specific antigen ≥ 3 ng/mL and combined transrectal ultrasound-guided and targeted biopsies. The main outcome measures were projected lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years from a National Health Service perspective. RESULTS: All screening strategies increased costs compared with no screening, with the majority also increasing quality-adjusted life-years. At willingness-to-pay thresholds of £20,000 or £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, a once-off screening at age 50 years was optimal, although this was sensitive to the utility estimates used. Although the polygenic risk-stratified screening strategies were not on the cost-effectiveness frontier, there was evidence to suggest that they were less cost ineffective than the alternative age-based strategies. CONCLUSIONS: Of the prostate-specific antigen-based strategies compared, only a once-off screening at age 50 years was potentially cost effective at current UK willingness-to-pay thresholds. An additional follow-up of CAP to 15 years may reduce uncertainty about the cost effectiveness of the screening strategies.

Increasing incidence of eosinophilic esophagitis in Sweden: a nationwide population study.

BACKGROUND: Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) is a chronic inflammatory condition of the esophagus associated with dysphagia and esophageal fibrosis. The incidence of EoE is not precisely known, and significant heterogeneity in study design and disease definition have led to widely variable estimates. Through the ESPRESSO (Epidemiology Strengthened by histoPathology Reports in Sweden) study we performed a nationwide population-based study to estimate the incidence and temporal patterns of biopsy-verified EoE. METHODS: Between October 2015 and April 2017, we contacted all pathology departments in Sweden (n = 28) to obtain biopsy report data on EoE. To assure a high degree of completeness, we restricted the study to 2004-2015. We then calculated age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates. RESULTS: We identified 1412 incident EoE cases between 2004-2015. The overall age-standardized incidence rates of EoE in Sweden was 1.22 per 100,000 person-years. During the study period, there was a significant increase of 33% [95%CI = 31-36%] (P < 0.001) per year in EoE incidence, and in the last 3 years of follow-up (2013-2015) the incidence was 2.79 per 100,000 person-years. This corresponds to a lifetime risk of biopsy-verified EoE for men of 0.33% (1 in 295 men) and for women 0.12% (1 in 813 women). We observed an early peak of EoE disgnosed at age 15-19 years for both males and females, and a second peak in the late 30 s for males, and early 40 s for females. We noted a 3:1 male-to-female predominance, which did not significantly vary over time. CONCLUSIONS: EoE seems to be increasing in Sweden, with an overall age-standardized incidence of EoE of 1.22 per 100,000 person-years in the last decade.

Cost-Effectiveness of the Stockholm3 Test and Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Prostate Cancer Screening: A Microsimulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Stockholm3 is a risk model that combines the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test, other plasma protein biomarkers, single nucleotide polymorphisms, and clinical variables. The STHLM3-MRI study (NCT03377881) found that the Stockholm3 test with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and combined targeted and systematic biopsies maintained the sensitivity for clinically significant cancers, and reduced the number of benign biopsies and clinically insignificant cancers. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of MRI-based screening for prostate cancer using either Stockholm3 as a reflex test or PSA alone. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A cost-utility analysis was performed from a lifetime societal perspective using a microsimulation model for men aged 55-69 yr in Sweden. Test characteristics were estimated from the STHLM3-MRI study. INTERVENTION: No screening and three quadrennial screening strategies, including either PSA ≥3 ng/ml or Stockholm3 with reflex test thresholds of PSA ≥1.5 or 2 ng/ml as criteria for referral to MRI, were performed, and those who were MRI positive had combined targeted and systematic biopsies. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Predictions included the number of tests, cancer incidence and mortality, costs, and quality-adjusted life-years. Uncertainties in key parameters were assessed using sensitivity analyses. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Compared with no screening, the screening strategies were predicted to reduce prostate cancer deaths by 7-9% across a lifetime. The use of Stockholm3 with PSA ≥2 ng/ml resulted in a 60% reduction in MRI compared with screening using PSA. This Stockholm3 strategy was cost-effective with a probability of 70% at a cost-effectiveness threshold of €47 218 (500 000 Swedish Kronor). As a potential limitation, the economic perspective was specific to Sweden. CONCLUSIONS: Screening with the Stockholm3 test at a reflex threshold of PSA ≥2 ng/ml and MRI was predicted to be cost-effective in Sweden. PATIENT SUMMARY: The Stockholm3 test with image-based screening may reduce screening-related harms and costs, while maintaining the health benefits from early detection of prostate cancer.

Comparing Modeling Approaches for Discrete Event Simulations With Competing Risks Based on Censored Individual Patient Data: A Simulation Study and Illustration in Colorectal Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to provide detailed guidance on modeling approaches for implementing competing events in discrete event simulations based on censored individual patient data (IPD). METHODS: The event-specific distributions (ESDs) approach sampled times from event-specific time-to-event distributions and simulated the first event to occur. The unimodal distribution and regression approach sampled a time from a combined unimodal time-to-event distribution, representing all events, and used a (multinomial) logistic regression model to select the event to be simulated. A simulation study assessed performance in terms of relative absolute event incidence difference and relative entropy of time-to-event distributions for different types and levels of right censoring, numbers of events, distribution overlap, and sample sizes. Differences in cost-effectiveness estimates were illustrated in a colorectal cancer case study. RESULTS: Increased levels of censoring negatively affected the modeling approaches' performance. A lower number of competing events and higher overlap of distributions improved performance. When IPD were censored at random times, ESD performed best. When censoring occurred owing to a maximum follow-up time for 2 events, ESD performed better for a low level of censoring (ie, 10%). For 3 or 4 competing events, ESD better represented the probabilities of events, whereas unimodal distribution and regression better represented the time to events. Differences in cost-effectiveness estimates, both compared with no censoring and between approaches, increased with increasing censoring levels. CONCLUSIONS: Modelers should be aware of the different modeling approaches available and that selection between approaches may be informed by data characteristics. Performing and reporting extensive validation efforts remains essential to ensure IPD are appropriately represented.

Two waves of coeliac disease incidence in Sweden: a nationwide population-based cohort study from 1990 to 2015.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the incidence of biopsy-verified coeliac disease (CD) in Sweden and examine the incidence of duodenal/jejunal biopsies with normal mucosa over time as a proxy for CD awareness and investigation. DESIGN: Nationwide population-based cohort study 1990-2015 based on biopsy reports indicating villous atrophy (VA) or normal mucosa in the duodenum/jejunum. RESULTS: We identified 44 771 individuals (63% females) with a biopsy report specifying VA and 412 279 (62% females) with a biopsy report indicating normal mucosa (without a prior biopsy indicating VA). The median age at diagnosis of CD was 28 years. The mean age-standardised incidence rate during the study period was 19.0 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 17.3 to 20.8). The incidence reached a peak in 1994 for both sexes and a second higher peak in 2002-2003 for females and in 2006 for males. The lifetime risk of developing CD was 1.8% (2.3% in females and 1.4% in males).Prior to 2015, there was a parallel rise in rates for biopsies showing normal duodenal/jejunal mucosa. CONCLUSIONS: In Sweden, the incidence of CD increased until 2002-2003 in females and until 2006 in males. Since then, the incidence of CD has declined despite increasing duodenal/jejunal biopsies, suggesting that increased awareness and investigation are unlikely to elevate the incidence of the disease in Sweden. Across a lifetime, 1 in 44 females and 1 in 72 males are expected to be diagnosed with CD in Sweden, indicating a relatively high societal burden of disease.

Human exposome assessment platform.

The Human Exposome Assessment Platform (HEAP) is a research resource for the integrated and efficient management and analysis of human exposome data. The project will provide the complete workflow for obtaining exposome actionable knowledge from population-based cohorts. HEAP is a state-of-the-science service composed of computational resources from partner institutions, accessed through a software framework that provides the world's fastest Hadoop platform for data warehousing and applied artificial intelligence (AI). The software, will provide a decision support system for researchers and policymakers. All the data managed and processed by HEAP, together with the analysis pipelines, will be available for future research. In addition, the platform enables adding new data and analysis pipelines. HEAP's final product can be deployed in multiple instances to create a network of shareable and reusable knowledge on the impact of exposures on public health.

The cost-effectiveness of prostate cancer screening using the Stockholm3 test.

OBJECTIVES: The European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer found that prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening reduced prostate cancer mortality, however the costs and harms from screening may outweigh any mortality reduction. Compared with screening using the PSA test alone, using the Stockholm3 Model (S3M) as a reflex test for PSA ≥ 1 ng/mL has the same sensitivity for Gleason score ≥ 7 cancers while the relative positive fractions for Gleason score 6 cancers and no cancer were 0.83 and 0.56, respectively. The cost-effectiveness of the S3M test has not previously been assessed. METHODS: We undertook a cost-effectiveness analysis from a lifetime societal perspective. Using a microsimulation model, we simulated for: (i) no prostate cancer screening; (ii) screening using the PSA test; and (iii) screening using the S3M test as a reflex test for PSA values ≥ 1, 1.5 and 2 ng/mL. Screening strategies included quadrennial re-testing for ages 55-69 years performed by a general practitioner. Discounted costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated. RESULTS: Comparing S3M with a reflex threshold of 2 ng/mL with screening using the PSA test, S3M had increased effectiveness, reduced lifetime biopsies by 30%, and increased societal costs by 0.4%. Relative to the PSA test, the S3M reflex thresholds of 1, 1.5 and 2 ng/mL had ICERs of 170,000, 60,000 and 6,000 EUR/QALY, respectively. The S3M test was more cost-effective at higher biopsy costs. CONCLUSIONS: Prostate cancer screening using the S3M test for men with an initial PSA ≥ 2.0 ng/mL was cost-effective compared with screening using the PSA test alone.

Cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening with primary HPV testing for unvaccinated women in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Sweden revised their cervical cancer screening program in 2017 to include cytology-based screening for women aged 23-29 years and primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for women aged 30-64 years; however, alternative strategies may be preferred. To inform cervical cancer prevention policies for unvaccinated women, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening strategies, including the current Swedish guidelines. METHODS: We adapted a mathematical simulation model of HPV and cervical cancer to the Swedish context using primary epidemiologic data. We compared the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening strategies that varied by the age to start screening, the age to switch from cytology to HPV testing, HPV strategies not preceded by cytology, screening frequency, and management of HPV-positive/cytology-negative women. RESULTS: We found that the current Swedish guidelines were more costly and less effective than alternative primary HPV-based strategies. All cost-efficient strategies involved primary HPV testing not preceded by cytology for younger women. Given a cost-effectiveness threshold of €85,619 per quality-adjusted life year gained, the optimal strategy involved 5-yearly primary HPV-based screening for women aged 23-50 years and 10-yearly HPV-based screening for women older than age 50 years. CONCLUSIONS: Primary screening based on HPV alone may be considered for unvaccinated women for those countries with similar HPV burdens.

Impact of model misspecification in shared frailty survival models.

Survival models incorporating random effects to account for unmeasured heterogeneity are being increasingly used in biostatistical and applied research. Specifically, unmeasured covariates whose lack of inclusion in the model would lead to biased, inefficient results are commonly modeled by including a subject-specific (or cluster-specific) frailty term that follows a given distribution (eg, gamma or lognormal). Despite that, in the context of parametric frailty models, little is known about the impact of misspecifying the baseline hazard or the frailty distribution or both. Therefore, our aim is to quantify the impact of such misspecification in a wide variety of clinically plausible scenarios via Monte Carlo simulation, using open-source software readily available to applied researchers. We generate clustered survival data assuming various baseline hazard functions, including mixture distributions with turning points, and assess the impact of sample size, variance of the frailty, baseline hazard function, and frailty distribution. Models compared include standard parametric distributions and more flexible spline-based approaches; we also included semiparametric Cox models. The resulting bias can be clinically relevant. In conclusion, we highlight the importance of fitting models that are flexible enough and the importance of assessing model fit. We illustrate our conclusions with two applications using data on diabetic retinopathy and bladder cancer. Our results show the importance of assessing model fit with respect to the baseline hazard function and the distribution of the frailty: misspecifying the former leads to biased relative and absolute risk estimates, whereas misspecifying the latter affects absolute risk estimates and measures of heterogeneity.

A nationwide cohort study of the incidence of microscopic colitis in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies of microscopic colitis have shown varying but increasing incidence rates. AIM: To assess the incidence of microscopic colitis in Sweden. METHODS: Nationwide cohort study performed in 1995-2015 based on biopsy reports. Age-specific and age-standardised incidence rates were calculated. RESULTS: We identified 13 844 patients with an incident diagnosis of microscopic colitis. Lymphocytic colitis (n = 9238) constituted 67% and collagenous colitis (n = 4606) 33% of microscopic colitis. The mean age at time of diagnosis of microscopic colitis was 60.2 years (58.6 for lymphocytic colitis, 63.3 for collagenous colitis). The lifetime risk of developing microscopic colitis was 0.87% in women (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.85-0.88) and 0.35% in men (95% CI: 0.34-0.36). From 2006, the overall incidence of microscopic colitis was approximately 10.5 cases per 100 000 person-years (95% CI: 9.8-11.3) with higher rates in women (72% of cases, incidence rate ratio = 2.4 (95% CI: 2.3-2.5) and the elderly with increasing rates up to 75-79 years. From 2006-2015, there was a significant increase of 1% per year (P = 0.02) in the overall microscopic colitis incidence rate in women; the estimated annual percent change was similar, although not statistically significant, in men (P = 0.15). CONCLUSIONS: In Sweden, the incidence of microscopic colitis is still increasing in women, although the rate appears to be stabilising. The incidence is particularly high in women and the elderly up to age 75-79 years. Finally, across a lifetime, 1 in 115 females and 1 in 286 males are expected to be diagnosed with microscopic colitis and thus posing a considerable disease burden.

Leukocyte Telomere Length and All-Cause Mortality: A Between-Within Twin Study With Time-Dependent Effects Using Generalized Survival Models.

Although previous studies examining leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and all-cause mortality controlled for several confounders, the observed association could be biased due to unmeasured confounders, including familial factors. We aimed to examine the association of LTL with all-cause mortality in a Swedish twin sample while adjusting for familial factors and allowing for time-dependent effects. A total of 366 participants (174 twin pairs and 18 individuals) were recruited from the Swedish Twin Registry. LTL was assessed using the Southern blot method. All-cause mortality data were obtained through linkage with the Swedish Population Registry, updated through November 15, 2017. To control for familial factors within twin pairs, we applied a between-within shared frailty model based on generalized survival models. Overall, 115 (31.4%) participants were men and 251 (68.6%) were women. The average age of the study participants when blood was drawn was 79.1 years, and follow-up duration ranged from 10 days to 25.7 years (mean = 10.2 years). During the follow-up period, 341 (93.2%) participants died. Shorter LTL was associated with higher mortality rates when controlling for familial factors in the between-within shared frailty model. We found significant time-dependent effects of LTL on all-cause mortality, where the mortality rate ratios were attenuated with increasing age.

Association of telomere length with general cognitive trajectories: a meta-analysis of four prospective cohort studies.

To investigate the association of telomere length (TL) with trajectories of general cognitive abilities, we used data on 5955 participants from the Sex Differences in Health and Aging Study and the Swedish Adoption/Twin Study of Aging in Sweden, and the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging, and the Health and Retirement Study in the United States. TL was measured at baseline, while general cognitive ability was assessed repeatedly up to 7 occasions. Latent growth curve models were used to examine the associations. One standard deviation increase of TL was associated with 0.021 unit increase (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.001, 0.042) of standardized mean general cognitive ability. After controlling for sex, the point estimate remained similar (0.019) with a wider CI (95% CI: -0.002, 0.039). The association was attenuated with adjustment for educational attainment (0.009, 95% CI: -0.009, 0.028). No strong evidence was observed for the association of TL and decline in general cognitive ability. Longer TL was associated with higher general cognitive ability levels in the age-adjusted models but not in the models including all covariates, nor with cognitive decline.

Risk of cancer associated with residential exposure to asbestos insulation: a whole-population cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The health risks associated with living in houses insulated with asbestos are unknown. Loose-fill asbestos was used to insulate some houses in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). We compared the incidence of mesothelioma and other cancers in residents of the ACT who did and did not live in these houses. METHODS: Our cohort study included all ACT residents identified using Medicare enrolment data. These data were linked to addresses of affected residential properties in the ACT to ascertain exposure. We followed up residents by linking data to the Australian Cancer Database and National Death Index. Outcomes were diagnosis of mesothelioma and selected other cancers. Effects were estimated for males and females separately using standardised incidence ratios (SIRs), adjusting for age and calendar time of diagnosis. FINDINGS: Between Nov 1, 1983, and Dec 31, 2013, 1 035 578 ACT residents were identified from the Medicare database. Of these, 17 248 (2%) had lived in an affected property, including seven (2%) of 285 people diagnosed with mesothelioma. The adjusted incidence of mesothelioma in males who had lived at an affected property was 2·5 times that of unexposed males (SIR 2·54, 95% CI 1·02-5·24). No mesotheliomas were reported among females who had lived at an affected property. Among individuals who had lived at an affected property, there was an elevated incidence of colorectal cancer in women (SIR 1·73, 95% CI 1·29-2·26) and prostate cancer in men (1·29, 1·07-1·54); colorectal cancer was increased, although not significantly, in males (SIR 1·32, 95% CI 0·99-1·72), with no significant increase in the other cancers studied. INTERPRETATION: Residential asbestos insulation is likely to be unsafe. Our findings have important health, social, financial, and legal implications for governments and communities in which asbestos has been used to insulate houses. FUNDING: ACT Government.

Generalized survival models for correlated time-to-event data.

Our aim is to develop a rich and coherent framework for modeling correlated time-to-event data, including (1) survival regression models with different links and (2) flexible modeling for time-dependent and nonlinear effects with rich postestimation. We extend the class of generalized survival models, which expresses a transformed survival in terms of a linear predictor, by incorporating a shared frailty or random effects for correlated survival data. The proposed approach can include parametric or penalized smooth functions for time, time-dependent effects, nonlinear effects, and their interactions. The maximum (penalized) marginal likelihood method is used to estimate the regression coefficients and the variance for the frailty or random effects. The optimal smoothing parameters for the penalized marginal likelihood estimation can be automatically selected by a likelihood-based cross-validation criterion. For models with normal random effects, Gauss-Hermite quadrature can be used to obtain the cluster-level marginal likelihoods. The Akaike Information Criterion can be used to compare models and select the link function. We have implemented these methods in the R package rstpm2. Simulating for both small and larger clusters, we find that this approach performs well. Through 2 applications, we demonstrate (1) a comparison of proportional hazards and proportional odds models with random effects for clustered survival data and (2) the estimation of time-varying effects on the log-time scale, age-varying effects for a specific treatment, and two-dimensional splines for time and age.

Estimating Heritability of Prostate Cancer-Specific Survival Using Population-Based Registers.

BACKGROUND: There is a strong genetic component in prostate cancer development with an estimated heritability of 58%. In addition, recent epidemiological assessments show a familial component in prostate cancer-specific survival, which could be due to either common genetics or environment. In this study we sought to estimate the heritability of prostate cancer-specific survival by studying brothers and father-son pairs in Sweden. METHODS: We used linkage records from three Swedish national registers: the Multi-Generation Register, the Cancer Register, and the Cause of Death Register. One thousand seven hundred twenty-eight brother pairs and 6,444 father-son pairs, where both family members were diagnosed with prostate cancer, were followed for prostate cancer mortality. By assuming that (i) brothers on average share 50% of their segregating alleles and 100% environment and (ii) fathers and sons share 50% of their segregating alleles and no environment, we implemented a model including influences of additive genetics (heritability), shared environment and non-shared environment for survival data. A conditional likelihood estimation procedure was developed to fit the model. Data simulation was applied to validate model assumptions. RESULTS: In a model that adjusted for age at diagnosis and calendar period, the estimated heritability of prostate cancer-specific survival was 0.10 (95% CI = 0.00-0.20) that was borderline significantly different from zero (P = 0.057). The shared environment component was not significantly different from zero with a point estimate of 0.00 (95% CI = 0.00-0.13). Simulation studies and sensitivity analysis revealed that the estimated heritability component was robust, whereas the shared environmental component may be underestimated. CONCLUSIONS: Heritability of prostate cancer-specific survival is considerably lower than for prostate cancer incidence. This supports a hypothesis that susceptibility of disease and progression of disease are separate mechanisms that involve different genes. Further assessment of the genetic basis of prostate cancer-specific survival is warranted. Prostate 77:900-907, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Phase of care prevalence for prostate cancer in New South Wales, Australia: A population-based modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a method for estimating the future numbers of prostate cancer survivors requiring different levels of care. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Analysis of population-based cancer registry data for prostate cancer cases (aged 18-84 years) diagnosed in 1996-2007, and a linked dataset with hospital admission data for men with prostate cancer diagnosed during 2005-2007 in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. METHODS: Cancer registry data (1996-2007) were used to project complete prostate cancer prevalence in NSW, Australia for 2008-2017, and treatment information from hospital records (2005-2007) was used to estimate the inpatient care needs during the first year after diagnosis. The projected complete prevalence was divided into care needs-based groups. We first divided the cohort into two groups based on patient's age (<75 and 75-84 years). The younger cohort was further divided into initial care and monitoring phases. Cause of death data were used as a proxy for patients requiring last year of life prostate cancer care. Finally, episode data were used to estimate the future number of cases with metastatic progression. RESULTS: Of the estimated total of 60,910 men with a previous diagnosis of prostate cancer in 2017, the largest groups will be older patients (52.0%) and younger men who require monitoring (42.5%). If current treatment patterns continue, in the first year post-diagnosis 41% (1380) of patients (<75 years) will have a radical prostatectomy, and 52.6% (1752) will be likely to have either active surveillance, external beam radiotherapy or androgen deprivation therapy. About 3% will require care for subsequent metastases, and 1288 men with prostate cancer are likely to die from the disease in 2017. CONCLUSIONS: This method extends the application of routinely collected population-based data, and can contribute much to the knowledge of the number of men with prostate cancer and their health care requirements. This could be of significant use in planning future cancer care services and facilities in Australia.